2026 Summer Farming Forecast: Cautious Optimism with Lingering Drought and Wildfire Risk
Farmers across the U.S. are entering the summer of 2026 facing a perfect storm of drought, severe weather, and mounting financial strain, conditions that are reshaping the outlook for crops, livestock, and rural economies.
In the Great Plains, the toll is already severe. Nebraska wheat producers are reporting widespread crop failures after a winter and spring marked by minimal precipitation and relentless winds. One producer described planting in “some of the best conditions we’ve had in memory,” only to watch the crop collapse, with nearly 80% of acres lost.
“We’ll probably end up harvesting 2–3 fields … really not worth even getting the combine out,” a farmer told Progressive Farmer, underscoring the economic impact from conditions echoing some of the worst drought periods in recent history.
2026 thus far
Nationally, drought coverage in 2026 has rivaled past peaks, with more than half of the country experiencing dryness or drought,1 and large swaths of the Plains enduring multi-year deficits similar to the prolonged drought cycles of the early 2000s and 2012.
Unlike those earlier events, however, today’s drought is compounded by extreme weather swings, making it less predictable and harder to manage. Ranchers are also feeling the heat. In southwest Kansas, drought has fueled massive wildfires, burning more than 120,000 acres in May2 and threatening feedyards and pastureland.
“The fires this year have come within two miles of the feedyard,” said one operator, speaking to Progressive Farmer. With grasslands scorched and little rainfall since late 2025, producers are being forced to adapt quickly to protect livestock and maintain operations.
At the same time, weather across the U.S. is becoming more erratic. While persistent drought dominates much of the map, some regions are receiving intense bursts of rainfall and subsequent flooding. More than 20 million Americans were under a flash flood warning in May3 as severe storms swept across the Midwest and East.
Key challenges facing farmers
- Historic-level droughts: Conditions in some areas resemble major drought cycles of the past two decades, but with broader geographic reach.
- Crop losses: Wheat and other crops are failing due to prolonged rainfall shortages, extreme winds and temperature changes. Utah in May declared a state of emergency due to crop losses, and earlier in the year Florida reported more than $3 billion in agricultural losses.
- Wildfire threats: Fires fueled by dry conditions are destroying pasture and threatening infrastructure.
- Weather whiplash: Drought conditions followed by sudden heavy rains increasing risks of flooding and field delays. This year’s winter wheat crop condition in the Plains is one of the poorest in recent history, rivaling 2023, another drought year, according to The Guardian.
2026 summer forecast
Looking ahead, the summer forecast offers a mixed outlook according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
Near-term rainfall across parts of the Southeast and Plains could bring localized improvement in drought conditions, but longer-range projections show drought persisting or expanding across the Great Plains and West, with above-normal temperatures likely to intensify evaporation and soil moisture loss.
Shel Winkley, a Texas-based meteorologist at Climate Central, a non-profit research organization, told The Guardian that there is still some time for crops to benefit from moisture before harvest starts in early June, but longer-range forecasts between May and July call for below-average rainfall in some Plains states.
This combination of intermittent relief paired with sustained heat mirrors patterns seen in past drought years. The difference in 2026 is the heightened weather volatility, which compresses decision windows for farmers and producers and increases financial risk.
How Old National can help
For more than 75 years, Old National Bank has provided the knowledge, experience, and financial solutions to help farmers and producers cultivate their operations to their fullest potential. As a national Top 50 Ag bank lender, we do more than agricultural loans. We help fuel your passion. Old National stands ready to support farmers with tailored agricultural lending solutions, including operating lines of credit, equipment financing, and cash-flow management strategies.
For momentum-building solutions for your agricultural business, visit Old National’s Agribusiness Lending page at oldnational.com/business/commercial-banking/specialized-industries/agribusiness-banking.
1 https://www.drought.gov/national
2 Extreme Drought, Wildfires Test Ranchers' Resilience
